This
is a good thing, for two reasons. First, if you are late getting
out of the market, you can always use the latest rally to exit at
better prices than existed at the low a few weeks or months prior.
Second, if you are already out of the market or making money on
the downside, rallies are great opportunities to take on or add
to new short-side positions. The chart below shows the decline of
April 1930 to July 1932. On a long-term graph, it looks like one
relentless swoop. When you examine weekly prices, you can see the
half dozen or more substantial rallies within it.
The
stock market was in double-digit rally mode for more than a third
of the calendar days in question. Any one of those rally days could
have been called "the low." Some probably were. The overall
period was the Dow Industrials from April 1930 to July 1932, and
it devastated investors. The Dow lost 86%
of its value, rally days notwithstanding.
These
rallies were the moments when the bear was catching his breath.
Every
time the stock market rallies - at least until valuation returns,
psychology turns pessimistic and the wave pattern is complete -
think of this chart.
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